Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
