Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability provided through current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a drone close by, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
